8/4/2025

During the month of July, global stock markets maintained their upward trend. The MSCI World Index posted its fourth consecutive month of gains, supported by several key factors. The signing of significant trade agreements, especially between the United States and the European Union, significantly reduced tariff uncertainty, providing greater regulatory visibility and easing geopolitical tensions. At the same time, macroeconomic data reflected stable economies, with no immediate signs of recession, consolidating expectations of a soft landing in the United States and rekindling the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve after the summer.

The earnings season also contributed to the market's positive tone, with the technology sector playing a particularly prominent role, confirming its leadership in the new investment cycle linked to artificial intelligence. This environment encouraged both institutional and retail investors to increase their positions, driven by risk appetite and fear of missing out on the rally. As a result, several indexes reached new highs. The Nasdaq stood out particularly, with a 3.7% rise, while European indexes performed more moderately, weighed down by the technology and real estate sectors. Peripheral stock markets, however, closed with solid gains, driven by the financial sector.

In the fixed-income markets, the returns of sovereign bonds recovered, causing drops in the price of public debt, whilst corporate credit showed greater strength. In commodities, Brent crude oil rose, and in currencies, the dollar gained ground against the euro, following perceived imbalances in the transatlantic agreement.

In this context, we maintain a balanced and neutral position in equities. The trade agreement has removed a key source of tension, but also poses risks of uneven growth across regions. Added to this is a mixed macroeconomic environment and lower seasonal liquidity, which could give way to a phase of consolidation and stock market digestion, following the recent rallies toward record highs. Therefore, we consider it essential to maintain flexibility, discipline, and active risk management in the face of a still uncertain, data-sensitive scenario with no clear catalysts in the short term.