Exporting in times of uncertainty: geopolitical risk map for Spanish companies

Wars, tariffs, maritime blockades and restrictions on raw materials. The global landscape has become more complex, but companies that understand risk are best placed to turn it into opportunity.

March 4, 2026

March 2026 presents the most complex geopolitical scenario for international trade in decades. The war in Ukraine marks four years with no sign of resolution, the conflict between the US/Israeli and Iran trade war has pushed oil prices above $116/barrel, the Red Sea remains a risk zone for shipping, and the trade war between the US, China and the EU continues, introducing unprecedented uncertainty. For Spanish exporting companies, understanding this risk map is not optional — it is a matter of competitive survival.
  • Brent March 2026
  • Gas Europe
  • Suez Traffic
  • Exports ES - USA
  • certification WTO 2026

Risk map: five open fronts

Front Level Key impact
Front
Iran–US/Israel War
Level
CRITICAL
Key impact
Brent > $116. Gas Europe +30%. Threat to the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil).
Front

Global trade war

 Level
CRITICAL
Key impact
Trump threatens to cut off trade with Spain. Tariffs 15% global. Exports to the US States -8%.
Front
Ukraine-Russia War (4 years)
Level
HIGH
Key impact
Russian gas to EU reduced by 2/3. EU defense spending: €381 billion (+62% vs 2020).
Front
Red Sea and Suez Crisis
Level
HIGH
Key impact
Suez traffic -45%. Deviation +14 days. Port surcharges in Spain: €142M.
Front
Rare earths restrictions
Level
MEDIUM
Key impact
China restricts 12/17 rare earth elements. Semi-conductors impact, defense, VE.
Front
Panama Canal
Level
MEDIUM
Key impact
Droughts. Water surcharges. Maximum capacity but low volumes.

Brent crude oil price evolution and geopolitical events

Energy and logistics: the double strangulation

The conflict with Iran has jeopardized the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Brent crude rose above $116 and European gas soared 30%, exceeding €70/MWh. For Spanish companies, this translates into higher production, transport and electricity costs.

Meanwhile, the Red Sea crisis has resulted in 45% less traffic through the Suez Canal. Ships are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 days to transit and an estimated additional cost of 142 million euros for Spanish ports in 2026.

Logistical impact

Transit Asia - Spain

Tariffs and trade war: the new wall

Tariff front Measurement Impact Spain
Tariff front
The United States → EU
Measurement
15% global (Sec. 122) + Sectorial Sec. 232.
Impact Spain
Exports to the US States -8% Oil, wine, ceramics, steel.
Tariff front
The United States → China
Measurement
Tariffs > 100% on some products.
Impact Spain
China redirects surpluses to Europe: unfair competition.
Tariff front
China → EU/US States
Measurement
Restriction on 12 rare earths + semiconductor control
Impact Spain
Automotive, electronics and renewables ES at risk.
Tariff front
EU → China
Measurement
Tariffs on Chinese EVs (up to 45%).
Impact Spain
Temporary protection of the European automotive sector.

Strategic raw materials: the new geopolitical weapon

China controls 60% of the world's rare earth production and 90% of its processing. In October 2025, it tightened its restrictions, increasing the number of items subject to export controls from 17 to 12. This affects the value chain of semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defense equipment. The EU has responded with the RESourceEU plan, seeking partnerships with Australia, Canada, Chile and Greenland.

European dependence on China for critical raw materials

Six tips for Spanish exporters

1. Diversify markets and suppliers

Do not depend on a single destination or a single source of supply. The EU-Mercosur agreement and African markets are real alternatives.

2. Financial coverage

Use instruments for hedging currencies, interest rates, and commodities. Export credit insurance is essential.

3. Nearshoring and friendshoring

Consider relocating part of your supply chain to allied or nearby countries. Morocco, Türkiye, and Eastern Europe are viable options.

4. Digitize your supply chain

Real-time visibility tools, predictive planning, and AI enable you to anticipate disruptions and react in time.

5. Monitor geopolitical risk

Integrate country risk analysis into your business strategy. What happens in Hormuz or in the US Congress States affects your profit and loss statement.

6. Seek out specialist advise

Tariff, health, and customs regulations change every week. A regulatory error can cost more than the tariff itself.

Uncertainty cannot be eliminated. But it can be managed

Companies that integrate geopolitical risk into their export strategy not only survive — they find opportunities where others see barriers.

 

International Analysis Team — Oftex

Internationalization Consultant · BBVA Partner · oftex.es

Sources: WTO · UNCTAD · KPMG Trade Outlook 2026 · Funcas · CNN · Euronews · Xeneta · Maersk Insights · European Commission · Ministry of Economy