Perspectives and outlook

• ECB policy continues to support the euro, with the ECB raising rates again to 2.50% (see more), while there is greater uncertainty about what the Fed will do (see more). U.S. inflation data for August, released on September 11, will be the key factor in the Fed’s decision and in subsequent EUR/USD movements, potentially calling into question the disinflation process that Fed Governor Waller recently highlighted (see more).
• Against this backdrop, we see a moderately bullish trend for EUR/USD. We are maintaining our strategy of buying on dips, identifying the 1.15–1.1450 range as an attractive entry point (see more).
• Risks to the EUR: France and, more broadly, the turbulent political environment in Europe amid a busy election calendar, represent the main long-term downside risk for the common currency heading into 2027 (see more).

Outlook - September 7, 2026 - (see here)